In the Formula 1 world, there tends to be a silly season when rumours about potential driver changes surface, and this often occurs as the sport's four-week summer break approaches. There is nothing silly, though, about the persistent paddock talk about whether the reigning world champion, Max Verstappen, will continue to wear the blue of Red Bull next year or, following one of the biggest driver transfers in the 75-year history of the sport, switch to the silver of Mercedes.

The Mercedes part owner, CEO, and team principal, Toto Wolff, has had considerable success in Formula 1 and is an astute negotiator and manager, helping Lewis Hamilton to become, statistically at least, the greatest F1 driver ever. However, Wolff has long very much admired Verstappen and has always regretted not signing him when he joined the Red Bull operation via its Toro Rosso junior team instead. With Hamilton having opted to leave Mercedes for Ferrari at the end of last season, Wolff rightly sees Verstappen as the best driver on the current grid and the one most likely to lead his team back to title-winning glory days, with his global profile also helping to give the team a genuine leader again.

Verstappen, who has both Belgian and Dutch nationality and chooses to race under the flag of the Netherlands, is contracted to Red Bull until the end of the 2028 season, but there are performance-related exit clauses that may become relevant. Also, in the F1 world, teams are always reluctant to try to force a driver to stay if he reveals he would prefer to move elsewhere, and the situation would then become a financial one in terms of how much a new team might have to pay to extricate the driver early from his current employer.

As such, Wolff has needed to not only make his own decisions about the best way ahead but also seek approval from the team’s other shareholders, namely the Mercedes-Benz car company and Ineos’ Jim Ratcliffe. This has been to keep both parties in the decision-making process, particularly due to the potentially significant costs involved re a transfer fee payable to Red Bull to acquire the four-time champion’s services, but it seems this approval may well now have been given. Of course, Verstappen’s salary package would stretch way beyond the budget currently required for George Russell and Kimi Antonelli, but Verstappen has already reached the stage in his career where more on-track success has far more value for him than simply money.

So, what may happen next? For sure, Red Bull is a team that has slipped from its former position of enjoying ongoing success, and all the internal conflict, which culminated in the recent sudden sacking of its long-time team principal, Christian Horner, may have left Verstappen, his manager Raymond Vermeulen, and his father Joss feeling that perhaps now is the time for a change. Also, next year sees the introduction of highly significant power unit and chassis changes in Formula 1, and Red Bull will part company with Honda and produce its own engines. This too may be a concern for Verstappen, considering just how competitive Red Bull might be in 2026 and beyond.

The current F1 season continues this coming weekend with the Belgian Grand Prix and sprint race round at the iconic Spa Francorchamps circuit, a venue so interwoven into the history of the sport and loved by every single racing driver I have ever met. It is also one of two home races for Verstappen, and, in addition to plenty of local support, a large army of Dutch fans will travel the short distance across the Belgian border to cheer on their hero. There are rumours that Mercedes might be planning to hold a press conference at Spa to make a major announcement, and it would be an ideal place to do so. For now, though, we can but wait and see.

If Verstappen joins Mercedes next year or in 2027, the team must decide how to handle Russell and Antonelli, who are both out of contract this year and want to stay. One would have to relinquish his seat to make space for an incoming Verstappen, but which driver might it be? 27-year-old Russell has won four times during his first six and a half years to date in F1 and has mainly impressed during the current campaign, but equally so has his 18-year-old rookie teammate from Italy, who continues on a steep learning curve.

Might Russell end up at Red Bull, having travelled in the opposite direction to Verstappen? Or might Aston Martin be a potential new home for him if the owner, Lawrence Stroll, can be persuaded to drop his son, Lance, in favour of a more gifted driver? Also, there’s a rumour that Wolff might look to temporarily place Antonelli at Alpine, which will be using Mercedes power units next year. This, though, would leave Russell alongside Verstappen at Mercedes, and history has shown that this could be a difficult situation to manage. Wolff had to endure a similar scenario when Hamilton and Nico Rosberg had a far from cosy relationship both on and off track, and the Austrian may wish to avoid any repetition if an alternative solution can be found.

The bottom line is that there are so many potential outcomes if Wolff does succeed in tempting Verstappen away from Red Bull and the next step on this front may be just days away. However, the four-time champion is playing his cards close to his chest and has as yet offered no comment about a possible move to Mercedes, nor about whether he will continue with Red Bull in 2026. He may even decide to stay with the latter for the remaining three and a half years of his contract, but that would perhaps seem to be an unlikely outcome.